Ulsan HD vs Gangwon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-01 · 06:00 CET
WLLWD
LDWDDThe score model makes an Ulsan HD win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.4% vs 70.4% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ulsan HD 1.26 – 1.21 Gangwon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD win | 36.4% | 41.9% | -5.6% |
| Draw | 29.9% | 27.9% | +2.0% |
| Gangwon win | 33.7% | 30.2% | +3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 50.1% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 29.6% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 55.0% | -3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 34.3% | -0.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ulsan HD 48.7 / Gangwon 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ulsan HD vs Gangwon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.