Pohang vs Jeju SK
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-01 · 06:00 CET
DWLDD
DWLLLThe score model makes a Pohang win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 78.0% vs 69.7% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pohang 1.14 – 1.06 Jeju SK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pohang win | 36.0% | 37.7% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 32.0% | 30.3% | +1.7% |
| Jeju SK win | 32.0% | 32.0% | +0.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.6% | 43.5% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 24.1% | -6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 50.5% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.0% | 30.3% | -8.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pohang 48.8 / Jeju SK 48.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pohang vs Jeju SK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.