Biggest divergence
Levadia – Tammeka+9.4%
Home win · data 83% vs market 74%
Fastest starters
Narva24%
5 of their 21 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Paide31%
13 of their 42 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+18.5uBlindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-12.8 ptsNarva produced performances worth 13 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
47%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Levadia – Tammeka2026-09-17 16:00Home win ✓83.0%vs 73.5%▲ +9.4%- Levadia – Parnu JK Vaprus2026-09-12 11:30FT U3.5 ✓56.0%vs 48.1%▲ +7.9%
- Kalju – Narva2026-09-12 11:30BTTS: No ✓54.8%vs 48.8%▲ +6.1%
- Kuressaare – Tammeka2026-09-13 14:00Home win ✓40.4%vs 34.7%▲ +5.7%
- Paide – Harju JK Laagri2026-09-13 11:30BTTS: No ✓47.6%vs 44.6%▲ +2.9%
- Nomme Utd – Flora2026-09-12 14:00Away win68.2%vs 66.2%▲ +2.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levadia– Tammeka | 2026-09-17 | 16:00 | Home win ✓ | 83.0% | 73.5% | ▲ +9.4% | 1.36 | |
| 2 | Levadia– Parnu JK Vaprus | 2026-09-12 | 11:30 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 56.0% | 48.1% | ▲ +7.9% | 2.08 | |
| 3 |  Kalju– Narva | 2026-09-12 | 11:30 | BTTS: No ✓ | 54.8% | 48.8% | ▲ +6.1% | 2.05 | |
| 4 |  Kuressaare–Tammeka | 2026-09-13 | 14:00 | Home win ✓ | 40.4% | 34.7% | ▲ +5.7% | 2.88 | |
| 5 |  Paide– Harju JK Laagri | 2026-09-13 | 11:30 | BTTS: No ✓ | 47.6% | 44.6% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.24 | |
| 6 |  Nomme Utd– Flora | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win | 68.2% | 66.2% | ▲ +2.0% | 1.51 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Meistriliiga schedule 10,000 times a day. Levadia win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~88 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Narva finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levadia | 65 | 88 | 84–93 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Flora | 49 | 66 | 61–71 | — | >99% | — |
| 3 |  Paide | 45 | 63 | 58–68 | — | 98% | — |
| 4 |  Kalju | 44 | 60 | 55–65 | — | 95% | — |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 41 | 52 | 47–56 | — | 6% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 28 | 37 | 32–42 | — | — | 80% |
| 9 | Nomme Utd | 28 | 36 | 32–41 | — | — | 85% |
| 10 |  Narva | 18 | 26 | 22–31 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 47 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/estonia/meistriliiga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Meistriliiga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/estonia/meistriliiga">Meistriliiga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Meistriliiga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +18.5u
133 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Meistriliiga match in 2026: +18.5 units over 133 flat-stake bets.Home wins▲ +7.6u
133 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Meistriliiga match in 2026: +7.6 units over 133 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -3.2u
133 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Meistriliiga match in 2026: -3.2 units over 133 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -7.2u
133 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Meistriliiga match in 2026: -7.2 units over 133 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -21.2u
133 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Meistriliiga match in 2026: -21.2 units over 133 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -25.8u
133 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Meistriliiga match in 2026: -25.8 units over 133 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -67.9u
133 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Meistriliiga match in 2026: -67.9 units over 133 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levadia | 65 | 58.2 | +6.8 | |
| 2 | Flora | 49 | 47.6 | +1.4 | |
| 3 | Paide | 45 | 43.2 | +1.8 | |
| 4 | Kalju | 44 | 49.8 | -5.8 | |
| 5 | Tammeka | 41 | 29.4 | +11.6 | outperformed expectations |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Kuressaare | 28 | 24.6 | +3.4 | |
| 9 | Nomme Utd | 28 | 30.2 | -2.2 | |
| 10 | Narva | 18 | 30.8 | -12.8 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+