The season in numbers
Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +8.3% at market prices across 166 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Narva produced performances worth 17 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Narva – Nomme Utd2026-10-27 16:00Home winModel 44.9%Implied 27.0%▲ +17.9%- Parnu JK Vaprus – Kuressaare2026-10-28 16:00BTTS: NoModel 50.5%Implied 41.2%▲ +9.4%
- Paide – Kalju2026-10-28 17:00Under 2.5Model 55.3%Implied 46.1%▲ +9.3%
- Levadia – Tammeka2026-10-27 16:00Over 1.5 HTModel 62.8%Implied 56.8%▲ +6.0%
- Parnu JK Vaprus – Paide2026-10-31 12:30Home winModel 27.2%Implied 24.2%▲ +3.0%
- Tammeka – Harju JK Laagri2026-10-31 12:30Away winModel 35.3%Implied 36.5%-1.2%
- Nomme Utd – Levadia2026-10-31 13:00Home winModel 9.0%Implied 10.8%-1.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Narva– Nomme Utd | 2026-10-27 | 16:00 | Home win | 44.9% | 27.0% | ▲ +17.9% | 3.70 |
| 2 |  Parnu JK Vaprus– Kuressaare | 2026-10-28 | 16:00 | BTTS: No | 50.5% | 41.2% | ▲ +9.4% | 2.43 |
| 3 |  Paide– Kalju | 2026-10-28 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 46.1% | ▲ +9.3% | 2.17 |
| 4 |  Levadia– Tammeka | 2026-10-27 | 16:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 62.8% | 56.8% | ▲ +6.0% | 1.76 |
| 5 | Parnu JK Vaprus–Paide | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Home win | 27.2% | 24.2% | ▲ +3.0% | 4.13 |
| 6 | Tammeka– Harju JK Laagri | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Away win | 35.3% | 36.5% | -1.2% | 2.74 |
| 7 | Nomme Utd–Levadia | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | Home win | 9.0% | 10.8% | -1.7% | 9.30 |
Add Meistriliiga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Meistriliiga schedule 10,000 times a day. Levadia win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~91 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Narva finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levadia | 84 | 91 | 89–93 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Paide | 60 | 65 | 62–69 | — | >99% | — |
| 3 |  Flora | 58 | 62 | 59–64 | — | >99% | — |
| 4 |  Kalju | 54 | 58 | 55–61 | — | 96% | — |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 50 | 53 | 51–56 | — | 4% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 35 | 38 | 35–41 | — | — | 70% |
| 9 | Nomme Utd | 34 | 37 | 34–40 | — | — | 90% |
| 10 |  Narva | 20 | 23 | 20–26 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 14 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Meistriliiga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levadia | 84 | 76.0 | +8.0 | |
| 2 | Paide | 60 | 55.2 | +4.8 | |
| 3 | Flora | 58 | 59.5 | -1.5 | |
| 4 | Kalju | 54 | 60.5 | -6.5 | |
| 5 | Tammeka | 50 | 37.5 | +12.5 | outperformed expectations |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Kuressaare | 35 | 29.5 | +5.5 | |
| 9 | Nomme Utd | 34 | 36.9 | -2.9 | |
| 10 | Narva | 20 | 37.0 | -17.0 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+