The season in numbers
Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +14.4% at market prices across 145 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Narva produced performances worth 13 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Levadia – Paide2026-10-11 11:30FT U3.5Model 68.8%Implied 58.1%▲ +10.7%- Kuressaare – Flora2026-10-11 13:30FT U3.5Model 66.1%Implied 58.5%▲ +7.7%
- Kalju – Harju JK Laagri2026-10-10 11:30BTTS: NoModel 49.3%Implied 41.8%▲ +7.4%
- Parnu JK Vaprus – Narva2026-10-10 11:30Home winModel 54.1%Implied 46.7%▲ +7.3%
- Tammeka – Nomme Utd2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 52.2%Implied 50.8%▲ +1.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levadia– Paide | 2026-10-11 | 11:30 | FT U3.5 | 68.8% | 58.1% | ▲ +10.7% | 1.72 |
| 2 |  Kuressaare– Flora | 2026-10-11 | 13:30 | FT U3.5 | 66.1% | 58.5% | ▲ +7.7% | 1.71 |
| 3 |  Kalju– Harju JK Laagri | 2026-10-10 | 11:30 | BTTS: No | 49.3% | 41.8% | ▲ +7.4% | 2.39 |
| 4 |  Parnu JK Vaprus– Narva | 2026-10-10 | 11:30 | Home win | 54.1% | 46.7% | ▲ +7.3% | 2.14 |
| 5 |  Tammeka– Nomme Utd | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 52.2% | 50.8% | ▲ +1.4% | 1.97 |
Add Meistriliiga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Meistriliiga schedule 10,000 times a day. Levadia win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~88 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Narva finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levadia | 72 | 88 | 84–91 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Flora | 55 | 68 | 63–71 | — | >99% | — |
| 3 |  Paide | 51 | 63 | 59–67 | — | 99% | — |
| 4 |  Kalju | 50 | 62 | 58–66 | — | 99% | — |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 44 | 52 | 48–56 | — | 2% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 29 | 35 | 31–39 | — | — | 93% |
| 9 | Nomme Utd | 28 | 35 | 31–39 | — | — | 92% |
| 10 |  Narva | 19 | 26 | 22–31 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 35 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Meistriliiga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levadia | 72 | 67.0 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | Flora | 55 | 51.5 | +3.5 | |
| 3 | Paide | 51 | 49.1 | +1.9 | |
| 4 | Kalju | 50 | 53.5 | -3.5 | |
| 5 | Tammeka | 44 | 32.4 | +11.6 | outperformed expectations |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Kuressaare | 29 | 26.1 | +2.9 | |
| 9 | Nomme Utd | 28 | 32.2 | -4.2 | |
| 10 | Narva | 19 | 32.0 | -13.0 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+