Meistriliigahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tammeka | 18 | 26 | 20.2 | +5.8Outperforming ++ | 9 | +4.4 | +1.4 | 1:2 vs Kalju (+2.4) | 3:2 vs Kuressaare (-1.5) |
2 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 20 | 26 | 20.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 7 | +4.9 | +0.3 | 1:2 vs Kalju (+2.5) | 0:2 vs Harju JK Laagri (-1.5) |
3 | Harju JK Laagri | 20 | 25 | 20.6 | +4.4Outperforming | 8 | +3.0 | +1.4 | 2:0 vs Flora (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Kuressaare (-1.7) |
4 | Levadia | 19 | 46 | 43.1 | +2.9Outperforming | 1 | -2.3 | +5.2 | 1:3 vs Flora (+1.1) | 1:2 vs Flora (-1.9) |
5 | Flora | 19 | 36 | 33.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 4 | -2.2 | +4.5 | 1:2 vs Levadia (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Nomme Utd (-2.1) |
6 | Nomme Utd | 20 | 25 | 22.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 6 | -0.8 | +3.0 | 1:2 vs Flora (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Tammeka (-1.8) |
7 | Kuressaare | 20 | 18 | 16.9 | +1.1On expectation | 10 | +1.9 | -0.8 | 1:2 vs Narva (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-1.3) |
8 | Paide | 20 | 32 | 33.9 | -1.9On expectation | 3 | -0.4 | -1.5 | 1:2 vs Flora (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Tammeka (-2.2) |
9 | Kalju | 20 | 35 | 37.5 | -2.5Underperforming | 2 | -4.5 | +2.1 | 0:1 vs Flora (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-2.3) |
10 | Narva | 20 | 13 | 23.4 | -10.3Underperforming −− | 5 | -0.8 | -9.5 | 1:0 vs Paide (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Harju JK Laagri (-2.0) |
