Meistriliigahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 36 | 48 | 33.0 | +15.0Outperforming ++ | 9 | +2.8 | +12.2 | 0:1 vs Paide (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Harju JK Laagri (-1.6) |
2 | Tallinna Kalev | 36 | 53 | 38.2 | +14.8Outperforming ++ | 8 | -0.9 | +15.6 | 1:2 vs Kalju (+2.4) | 2:1 vs Narva (-1.3) |
3 | Kuressaare | 36 | 43 | 42.4 | +0.6On expectation | 5 | 0.0 | +0.6 | 2:1 vs Levadia (+2.5) | 1:2 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-2.1) |
4 | Levadia | 36 | 77 | 76.6 | +0.4On expectation | 2 | +4.1 | -3.8 | 0:2 vs Flora (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Harju JK Laagri (-2.6) |
5 | Flora | 36 | 79 | 82.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 1 | -4.5 | +1.1 | 2:1 vs Paide (+1.1) | 1:4 vs Narva (-2.7) |
6 | Harju JK Laagri | 36 | 23 | 26.6 | -3.5Underperforming | 10 | -3.3 | -0.3 | 2:1 vs Levadia (+2.7) | 0:2 vs Tallinna Kalev (-1.4) |
7 | Narva | 36 | 38 | 41.7 | -3.7Underperforming | 6 | -0.4 | -3.3 | 1:4 vs Flora (+2.8) | 1:3 vs Harju JK Laagri (-2.1) |
8 | Paide | 36 | 53 | 61.3 | -8.3Underperforming −− | 3 | -5.0 | -3.3 | 2:0 vs Kalju (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-2.2) |
9 | Kalju | 36 | 49 | 59.3 | -10.3Underperforming −− | 4 | -0.4 | -9.9 | 4:3 vs Levadia (+2.0) | 1:0 vs Harju JK Laagri (-2.5) |
10 | Tammeka | 36 | 27 | 38.4 | -11.4Underperforming −− | 7 | -4.4 | -7.0 | 1:2 vs Kalju (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-1.9) |
