Meistriliigahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Flora | 36 | 82 | 70.4 | +11.6Outperforming ++ | 2 | +3.0 | +8.6 | 1:3 vs Levadia (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-2.3) |
2 | Kalju | 36 | 74 | 64.5 | +9.5Outperforming ++ | 4 | +5.1 | +4.5 | 2:0 vs Levadia (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-1.8) |
3 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 36 | 49 | 40.5 | +8.4Outperforming ++ | 6 | -1.4 | +9.8 | 1:3 vs Levadia (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Kuressaare (-1.9) |
4 | Paide | 36 | 70 | 67.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 3 | +2.8 | -0.3 | 1:2 vs Levadia (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Tallinna Kalev (-2.6) |
5 | Harju JK Laagri | 36 | 36 | 35.1 | +0.9On expectation | 8 | +1.9 | -1.0 | 1:3 vs Narva (+2.4) | 3:1 vs Tallinna Kalev (-1.5) |
6 | Narva | 36 | 51 | 51.8 | -0.8On expectation | 5 | -0.8 | -0.0 | 0:1 vs Paide (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Harju JK Laagri (-2.1) |
7 | Levadia | 36 | 79 | 81.1 | -2.1Underperforming | 1 | -0.7 | -1.4 | 2:3 vs Flora (+1.4) | 1:3 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-2.4) |
8 | Kuressaare | 36 | 28 | 30.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 9 | +0.2 | -3.1 | 0:2 vs Narva (+2.3) | 2:1 vs Tallinna Kalev (-1.9) |
9 | Tammeka | 36 | 30 | 37.0 | -7.0Underperforming −− | 7 | -1.4 | -5.6 | 2:3 vs Kuressaare (+1.8) | 0:5 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-2.0) |
10 | Tallinna Kalev | 36 | 17 | 24.1 | -7.1Underperforming −− | 10 | +2.5 | -9.6 | 1:0 vs Paide (+2.7) | 1:3 vs Harju JK Laagri (-1.2) |
