Meistriliigahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kalju | 36 | 72 | 64.6 | +7.4Outperforming ++ | 3 | +4.9 | +2.5 | 0:2 vs Paide (+1.8) | 4:1 vs Narva (-2.0) |
2 | Levadia | 36 | 87 | 81.1 | +5.9Outperforming ++ | 1 | +1.1 | +4.8 | 4:2 vs Flora (+1.6) | 1:0 vs Flora (-2.1) |
3 | Flora | 36 | 70 | 64.4 | +5.6Outperforming ++ | 4 | +10.3 | -4.6 | 1:0 vs Levadia (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-2.3) |
4 | Paide | 36 | 72 | 69.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 2 | -0.9 | +3.9 | 1:3 vs Flora (+1.6) | 3:2 vs Tallinna Kalev (-2.4) |
5 | Kuressaare | 36 | 34 | 33.2 | +0.8On expectation | 9 | -0.1 | +0.9 | 3:0 vs Tallinna Kalev (+2.2) | 3:1 vs Parnu JK Vaprus (-1.2) |
6 | Narva | 36 | 42 | 43.2 | -1.2On expectation | 6 | -6.9 | +5.7 | 2:3 vs Paide (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Kuressaare (-1.8) |
7 | Tammeka | 36 | 42 | 43.5 | -1.5On expectation | 5 | -1.6 | +0.1 | 0:1 vs Paide (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Kuressaare (-1.9) |
8 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 36 | 35 | 36.9 | -1.9On expectation | 8 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0:1 vs Flora (+2.5) | 2:1 vs Nomme Utd (-1.5) |
9 | Tallinna Kalev | 36 | 31 | 37.6 | -6.6Underperforming −− | 7 | -0.5 | -6.1 | 3:2 vs Paide (+2.5) | 3:0 vs Kuressaare (-2.0) |
10 | Nomme Utd | 36 | 15 | 27.1 | -12.1Underperforming −− | 10 | -3.3 | -8.8 | 2:1 vs Tammeka (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Tallinna Kalev (-1.3) |
