Meistriliigahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Flora | 29 | 80 | 64.5 | +15.5Outperforming ++ | 1 | +4.6 | +10.9 | 1:7 vs Paide (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Tulevik (-2.6) |
2 | Tallinna Kalev | 30 | 20 | 14.6 | +5.4Outperforming ++ | 10 | +2.3 | +3.1 | 0:2 vs Tammeka (+2.6) | 0:2 vs Kuressaare (-0.9) |
3 | Paide | 30 | 64 | 59.7 | +4.3Outperforming | 2 | +2.3 | +2.0 | 4:2 vs Levadia (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Tulevik (-2.6) |
4 | Tulevik | 28 | 31 | 28.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 8 | -1.4 | +4.2 | 1:2 vs Paide (+2.7) | 3:0 vs Kuressaare (-1.6) |
5 | Tammeka | 28 | 32 | 32.4 | -0.4On expectation | 6 | -6.2 | +5.8 | 0:1 vs Narva (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Tallinna Kalev (-2.4) |
6 | Legion | 30 | 31 | 32.2 | -1.2On expectation | 7 | -4.8 | +3.6 | 1:2 vs Kalju (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Tallinna Kalev (-2.2) |
7 | Kuressaare | 30 | 24 | 25.3 | -1.3On expectation | 9 | -1.9 | +0.6 | 3:2 vs Narva (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Tallinna Kalev (-1.6) |
8 | Levadia | 29 | 57 | 58.6 | -1.6On expectation | 3 | +1.9 | -3.5 | 0:2 vs Kalju (+1.5) | 2:0 vs Kalju (-1.5) |
9 | Kalju | 30 | 49 | 53.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 4 | -7.3 | +3.2 | 1:3 vs Paide (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Legion (-2.1) |
10 | Narva | 30 | 25 | 43.6 | -18.6Underperforming −− | 5 | -8.3 | -10.3 | 1:0 vs Paide (+1.9) | 3:2 vs Kuressaare (-2.2) |
