Meistriliiga title race 2026: who will win the league?
Estonia · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
The Meistriliiga title race is settled in the simulations: no club's chance is between 1% and 99%.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
No club is between 1% and 99% in the simulations.
Above 99%: Levadia. Below 1%: Paide, Flora, Kalju, Tammeka, Harju JK Laagri, Parnu JK Vaprus, Kuressaare, Nomme Utd, Narva.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 19 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).