The season in numbers
Blindly backing over 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Doncaster produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Mansfield – Huddersfield2026-09-12 14:00Home win ✓40.3%vs 29.4%▲ +10.8%- Cambridge Utd – Reading2026-09-12 14:00Away win ✓46.2%vs 38.5%▲ +7.7%
- AFC Wimbledon – Doncaster2026-09-12 14:00Under 1.5 HT ✓77.6%vs 71.4%▲ +6.2%
- Oxford Utd – Burton2026-09-12 14:00Home win56.9%vs 54.3%▲ +2.6%
- Plymouth – Barnsley2026-09-12 14:00Away win ✓23.7%vs 21.6%▲ +2.1%
- Leyton Orient – Wycombe2026-09-12 11:30BTTS: No44.4%vs 44.6%-0.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mansfield– Huddersfield | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win ✓ | 40.3% | 29.4% | ▲ +10.8% | 3.40 | |
| 2 |  Cambridge Utd– Reading | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 46.2% | 38.5% | ▲ +7.7% | 2.60 | |
| 3 |  AFC Wimbledon– Doncaster | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 77.6% | 71.4% | ▲ +6.2% | 1.40 | |
| 4 |  Oxford Utd– Burton | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win | 56.9% | 54.3% | ▲ +2.6% | 1.84 | |
| 5 |  Plymouth– Barnsley | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 23.7% | 21.6% | ▲ +2.1% | 4.63 | |
| 6 |  Leyton Orient– Wycombe | 2026-09-12 | 11:30 | BTTS: No | 44.4% | 44.6% | -0.2% | 2.24 |
Where the season is heading
straight-line pace · ~41 rounds leftAt their current points pace, Sheffield Wed finish top with ~110 points — 9 clear of the field. The market's biggest argument is with Sheffield Wed: their results pace says ~110 points, the pace of their market prices (xPTS) says ~66 — one of them gives in.
| # | Team | Pts now | Results pace | Market pace | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheffield Wed | 12 | 110 | 66 | +45 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 11 | 101 | 78 | +23 |
| 3 |  Stockport County | 9 | 83 | 75 | +7 |
| 4 |  Bradford City | 9 | 83 | 75 | +8 |
| 5 | Reading | 7 | 81 | 71 | +10 |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Doncaster | 3 | 28 | 65 | -38 |
| 23 | Wycombe | 3 | 28 | 62 | -34 |
| 24 |  Wigan | 3 | 28 | 62 | -34 |
Straight-line pace over each team's remaining scheduled fixtures — not a simulation. Market pace extrapolates xPTS (the points the market's prices expected so far) the same way. Split and playoff rounds count once they're scheduled.
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Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every League One match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheffield Wed | 12 | 7.1 | +4.9 | |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | |
| 4 |  Stevenage | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | |
| 5 | Bradford City | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Doncaster | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | |
| 23 | Wycombe | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | |
| 24 | Wigan | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisHuddersfield11 ptsStockport County9 ptsStevenage9 ptsBradford City9 ptsBurton8 ptsCambridge Utd8 pts
Luton8 ptsReading7 ptsLeyton Orient7 ptsOxford Utd7 pts
Blackpool7 ptsNotts County7 ptsPlymouth7 ptsBarnsley7 ptsAFC Wimbledon7 ptsMansfield6 ptsLeicester5 ptsMK Dons4 pts
Peterborough4 ptsBromley4 ptsDoncaster3 ptsWycombe3 ptsWigan3 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+