Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 5 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
Sheffield Wed 48%Stockport County 14%Plymouth 13%
chance of winning the league · 90 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
Sheffield Wed 69%Stockport County 33%Plymouth 30%
chance of automatic promotion · 85 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
Bromley 95%AFC Wimbledon 45%Wigan 42%
chance of going down · 53 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
Stevenage – Wigan+13.9%
Under 2.5 · data 73% vs market 59%
Fastest starters
Reading24%
4 of their 17 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Oxford Utd54%
7 of their 13 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+16.5%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +16.5% at market prices across 90 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-5.0 ptsWigan produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
34%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Stevenage – Wigan2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 72.7%Implied 58.8%▲ +13.9%- Doncaster – Burton2026-10-10 14:00Away winModel 31.6%Implied 22.7%▲ +9.0%
- Cambridge Utd – Blackpool2026-10-10 14:00Away winModel 39.7%Implied 31.2%▲ +8.6%
- Bradford City – Leyton Orient2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 61.9%Implied 54.1%▲ +7.8%
- Wycombe – Luton2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 45.5%Implied 38.2%▲ +7.4%
- Stockport County – Barnsley2026-10-10 14:00Away winModel 19.9%Implied 15.6%▲ +4.3%
- Plymouth – AFC Wimbledon2026-10-10 11:30Under 1.5 HTModel 64.5%Implied 65.8%-1.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stevenage– Wigan | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 72.7% | 58.8% | ▲ +13.9% | 1.70 |
| 2 |  Doncaster– Burton | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Away win | 31.6% | 22.7% | ▲ +9.0% | 4.41 |
| 3 |  Cambridge Utd– Blackpool | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Away win | 39.7% | 31.2% | ▲ +8.6% | 3.21 |
| 4 |  Bradford City– Leyton Orient | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 61.9% | 54.1% | ▲ +7.8% | 1.85 |
| 5 |  Wycombe– Luton | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 45.5% | 38.2% | ▲ +7.4% | 2.62 |
| 6 |  Stockport County– Barnsley | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Away win | 19.9% | 15.6% | ▲ +4.3% | 6.41 |
| 7 |  Plymouth– AFC Wimbledon | 2026-10-10 | 11:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 64.5% | 65.8% | -1.3% | 1.52 |
Add League One fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 5 OctWe simulate the remaining League One schedule 10,000 times a day. Sheffield Wed win the 2026-2027 title in 48% of them, projecting ~86 points; Stockport County are next at 14%. At the other end, Bromley finish in the bottom three in 92% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Plymouth's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheffield Wed | 14 | 86 | 76–96 | 48% | 88% | — |
| 2 | Stockport County | 13 | 79 | 69–89 | 14% | 62% | — |
| 3 | Plymouth | 16 | 78 | 68–88 | ▲13% | 59% | — |
| 4 | Oxford Utd | 11 | 77 | 66–87 | 11% | 52% | <1% |
| 5 | Bradford City | 16 | 74 | 63–83 | 4% | 33% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Wigan | 4 | 52 | 42–61 | — | <1% | 31% |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 51 | 42–61 | — | <1% | 33% |
| 24 | Bromley | 8 | 38 | 29–47 | — | — | 92% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 462 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every League One match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +16.5%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Draws in League One, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out +16.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▲ +2.2%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Away wins in League One, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out +2.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −4.9%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in League One, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −4.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −5.7%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in League One, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −5.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −5.9%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in League One, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −5.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −12.7%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in League One, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −12.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −25.2%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Home wins in League One, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −25.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 16 | 13.8 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | Bradford City | 16 | 11.9 | +4.1 | |
| 3 |  Huddersfield | 15 | 13.8 | +1.2 | |
| 4 | Sheffield Wed | 14 | 10.2 | +3.8 | |
| 5 | Stockport County | 13 | 13.9 | -0.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | MK Dons | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 | |
| 23 |  Peterborough | 5 | 9.2 | -4.2 | |
| 24 | Wigan | 4 | 9.0 | -5.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisPlymouth16 ptsBradford City16 ptsHuddersfield15 ptsSheffield Wed14 ptsStockport County13 ptsCambridge Utd13 pts
Reading12 ptsBurton12 ptsAFC Wimbledon12 ptsOxford Utd11 ptsLeyton Orient10 ptsWycombe10 ptsStevenage9 ptsLeicester9 ptsBlackpool8 ptsLuton8 pts
Mansfield8 ptsBarnsley8 ptsBromley8 ptsNotts County7 ptsDoncaster6 ptsMK Dons6 ptsPeterborough5 ptsWigan4 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+