League One title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Sheffield Wed (74%), Stockport County (10%), Oxford Utd (6%). 92 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wed | 9 | 18 | 9283–102 | 74% | 74 from 37 (2.00/game) |
| Stockport County | 10 | 19 | 8171–91 | 10% | 73 from 36 (2.03/game) |
| Oxford Utd | 8 | 15 | 7868–88 | 6% | 77 from 38 (2.03/game) |
| Bradford City | 10 | 20 | 7667–86 | 3% | 72 from 36 (2.00/game) |
| Plymouth | 11 | 19 | 7666–85 | 3% | 73 from 35 (2.09/game) |
| Huddersfield | 10 | 19 | 7565–85 | 3% | 73 from 36 (2.03/game) |
Below 1%: Reading, Luton, Wycombe, Leyton Orient, Mansfield, Stevenage, Cambridge Utd, Blackpool, Peterborough, Leicester, Barnsley, Burton, Wigan, Doncaster, MK Dons, Notts County, AFC Wimbledon, Bromley.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 438 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).