Oxford Utd vs Stockport County
League One, England · 2026-10-27 · 20:45 CET
DWDWD
WWWWDThe score model makes an Oxford Utd win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Oxford Utd win — 41.9% vs 28.1% implied (+13.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oxford Utd 1.51 – 1.31 Stockport County.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd win | 41.9% | 28.1% | +13.8% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.0% | +0.2% |
| Stockport County win | 32.8% | 46.9% | -14.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 56.8% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 35.9% | -4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 59.2% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 38.8% | -6.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oxford Utd 18.3 / Stockport County 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Oxford Utd vs Stockport County in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.