Bahia vs Remo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-16 · 01:00 CET
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LLLDDThe score model made a Bahia win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bahia 1.99 – 0.99 Remo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia win | 60.2% | 66.0% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 20.5% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Remo win | 17.9% | 13.5% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 60.3% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 39.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 53.9% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.6% | 41.0% | +3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bahia 53.3 / Remo 21.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bahia vs Remo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.