Fluminense vs Vasco
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-06 · 02:00 CET
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LWWWDThe score model made a Fluminense win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.85 – 0.89 Vasco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 59.6% | 41.9% | +17.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 29.0% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Vasco win | 17.4% | 29.0% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 44.4% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 24.1% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 50.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 30.4% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fluminense 54.1 / Vasco 52 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.