Cruzeiro vs Athletico-PR
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-06 · 21:00 CET
LWLWW
DLDWDThe score model made a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.33 – 0.96 Athletico-PR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro win | 44.6% | 53.0% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 25.6% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Athletico-PR win | 26.7% | 21.4% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 51.5% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 30.5% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 53.6% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 35.1% | -1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cruzeiro 52 / Athletico-PR 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.