Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-05 · 23:30 CET
LWLLW
LWDWDThe score model made a Sao Paulo win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.28 – 0.97 Atletico-MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo win | 43.0% | 46.9% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 28.6% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Atletico-MG win | 27.8% | 24.5% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 42.6% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.1% | 23.0% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 48.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 29.3% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Paulo 52 / Atletico-MG 52.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.