Bragantino vs Bahia
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-05 · 21:00 CET
LDLLD
WWWLLThe score model made a Bragantino win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bragantino 1.39 – 1.12 Bahia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino win | 42.7% | 46.9% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.3% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Bahia win | 29.7% | 26.7% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 54.1% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 33.6% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 56.9% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 36.7% | -1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bragantino 52.1 / Bahia 52.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.