Vitoria vs Bahia
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
LLWDL
WWWWLThe score model made a Vitoria win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria 1.20 – 1.16 Bahia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria win | 36.5% | 36.0% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 30.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Bahia win | 34.4% | 33.9% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 44.3% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 24.3% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 51.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 30.6% | +0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria 46.9 / Bahia 51.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.