Vitoria vs Bahia
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
DLLLW
DDDDDThe score model makes a Vitoria win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.8% vs 72.2% implied (+6.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria 1.20 – 1.16 Bahia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria win | 36.5% | 38.0% | -1.5% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 29.0% | -0.0% |
| Bahia win | 34.5% | 32.9% | +1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 47.9% | -6.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 27.8% | -6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 53.9% | -5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 32.7% | -1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria 47.1 / Bahia 51.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.