Biggest divergence
Duisburg – TSV Havelse+5.0%
Under 1.5 HT · data 59% vs market 54%
Fastest starters
Duisburg25%
3 of their 12 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Saarbrucken21%
3 of their 14 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+8.0uBlindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-3.0 ptsDusseldorf produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
45%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 24.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Duisburg – TSV Havelse2026-09-15 17:00Under 1.5 HT ✓59.3%vs 54.3%▲ +5.0%- Alemannia Aachen – Regensburg2026-09-12 14:30Under 1.5 HT ✓65.7%vs 61.0%▲ +4.8%
- Hansa Rostock – Stuttgart II2026-09-16 17:00Under 1.5 HT ✓59.5%vs 55.2%▲ +4.2%
- Wehen – Mannheim2026-09-13 14:30Home win ✓46.2%vs 43.5%▲ +2.7%
- Saarbrucken – Ingolstadt2026-09-12 12:00Over 1.5 HT46.7%vs 45.7%▲ +1.0%
- Mannheim – RW Essen2026-09-16 17:00FT U3.558.6%vs 59.5%-1.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Duisburg– TSV Havelse | 2026-09-15 | 17:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 59.3% | 54.3% | ▲ +5.0% | 1.84 | |
| 2 |  Alemannia Aachen– Regensburg | 2026-09-12 | 14:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 65.7% | 61.0% | ▲ +4.8% | 1.64 | |
| 3 |  Hansa Rostock– Stuttgart II | 2026-09-16 | 17:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 59.5% | 55.2% | ▲ +4.2% | 1.81 | |
| 4 |  Wehen– Mannheim | 2026-09-13 | 14:30 | Home win ✓ | 46.2% | 43.5% | ▲ +2.7% | 2.30 | |
| 5 |  Saarbrucken– Ingolstadt | 2026-09-12 | 12:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 46.7% | 45.7% | ▲ +1.0% | 2.19 | |
| 6 | Mannheim– RW Essen | 2026-09-16 | 17:00 | FT U3.5 | 58.6% | 59.5% | -1.0% | 1.68 |
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every 3. Liga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +8.0u
40 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every 3. Liga match in 2026-2027: +8.0 units over 40 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▲ +0.2u
40 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every 3. Liga match in 2026-2027: +0.2 units over 40 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -1.7u
40 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every 3. Liga match in 2026-2027: -1.7 units over 40 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -3.9u
40 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every 3. Liga match in 2026-2027: -3.9 units over 40 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -4.3u
40 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every 3. Liga match in 2026-2027: -4.3 units over 40 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -5.1u
40 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every 3. Liga match in 2026-2027: -5.1 units over 40 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -14.1u
40 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every 3. Liga match in 2026-2027: -14.1 units over 40 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duisburg | 12 | 7.3 | +4.7 | |
| 2 | Saarbrucken | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 | |
| 3 | Hansa Rostock | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | |
| 4 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | |
| 5 | Preussen Munster | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Regensburg | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | |
| 19 |  Verl | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | |
| 20 | Wehen | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisDuisburg12 ptsSaarbrucken9 ptsHansa Rostock8 ptsAlemannia Aachen7 ptsPreussen Munster7 ptsRW Essen7 pts
Hoffenheim II6 pts
Viktoria Koln6 ptsStuttgart II6 ptsGrossaspach6 ptsMeppen6 ptsFortuna Koln5 ptsIngolstadt5 ptsWurzburger Kickers4 ptsMannheim4 ptsDusseldorf4 ptsTSV Havelse3 ptsRegensburg3 ptsVerl3 ptsWehen2 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+