The season in numbers
Blindly backing over 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 4 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Ulm produced performances worth 14 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.8' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every 3. Liga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VfL Osnabruck | 80 | 59.7 | +20.3 | champions — earned it |
| 2 | Cottbus | 72 | 59.5 | +12.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | RW Essen | 70 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
One email per matchweek: fixtures with data leans, who's outperforming the market, and anything it's mispricing. Starts with the 2026-27 season. No tips, no spam.
Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+
