Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
Duisburg 53%Viktoria Koln 17%RW Essen 9%
chance of winning the league · 75 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
Duisburg 73%Viktoria Koln 39%RW Essen 24%
chance of automatic promotion · 71 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
TSV Havelse 96%Grossaspach 91%Wurzburger Kickers 55%
chance of going down · 45 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
Ingolstadt – RW Essen+8.5%
Home win · data 40% vs market 31%
Fastest starters
Alemannia Aachen46%
6 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
RW Essen39%
7 of their 18 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+6.5%HT Over 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +6.5% at market prices across 85 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-3.4 ptsTSV Havelse produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
48%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 26.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Ingolstadt – RW Essen2026-10-17 12:00Home winModel 39.8%Implied 31.3%▲ +8.5%- Hoffenheim II – Verl2026-10-18 11:30Away winModel 43.5%Implied 36.1%▲ +7.4%
- Regensburg – Wehen2026-10-17 12:00Under 1.5 HTModel 65.8%Implied 62.9%▲ +2.9%
- Meppen – TSV Havelse2026-10-18 17:30Away winModel 25.5%Implied 23.8%▲ +1.7%
- Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock2026-10-17 12:00Home winModel 41.9%Implied 41.5%▲ +0.4%
- Duisburg – Viktoria Koln2026-10-18 14:30Under 1.5 HTModel 62.2%Implied 62.5%-0.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ingolstadt– RW Essen | 2026-10-17 | 12:00 | Home win | 39.8% | 31.3% | ▲ +8.5% | 3.20 |
| 2 |  Hoffenheim II– Verl | 2026-10-18 | 11:30 | Away win | 43.5% | 36.1% | ▲ +7.4% | 2.77 |
| 3 |  Regensburg– Wehen | 2026-10-17 | 12:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 65.8% | 62.9% | ▲ +2.9% | 1.59 |
| 4 |  Meppen– TSV Havelse | 2026-10-18 | 17:30 | Away win | 25.5% | 23.8% | ▲ +1.7% | 4.20 |
| 5 |  Alemannia Aachen– Hansa Rostock | 2026-10-17 | 12:00 | Home win | 41.9% | 41.5% | ▲ +0.4% | 2.41 |
| 6 |  Duisburg– Viktoria Koln | 2026-10-18 | 14:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 62.2% | 62.5% | -0.3% | 1.60 |
Add 3. Liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining 3. Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Duisburg win the 2026-2027 title in 53% of them, projecting ~73 points; Viktoria Koln are next at 17%. At the other end, TSV Havelse finish in the bottom three in 92% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Duisburg's title chance up 16 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duisburg | 24 | 73 | 63–81 | ▲53% | 91% | — |
| 2 | Viktoria Koln | 18 | 66 | 57–75 | ▼17% | 68% | — |
| 3 | RW Essen | 18 | 64 | 55–73 | ▲9% | 53% | <1% |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 15 | 64 | 55–72 | ▼9% | 53% | <1% |
| 5 | Verl | 11 | 61 | 51–69 | 4% | 35% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Wurzburger Kickers | 8 | 42 | 33–50 | — | <1% | 39% |
| 19 | Grossaspach | 8 | 34 | 26–42 | — | — | 84% |
| 20 | TSV Havelse | 5 | 31 | 23–39 | — | — | 92% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 295 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every 3. Liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Over 1.5▲ +6.5%
at market prices · 85 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 85 matches the market's prices paid out +6.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▲ +6.4%
at market prices · 85 matcheschart →
Away wins in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 85 matches the market's prices paid out +6.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▲ +0.2%
at market prices · 85 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 85 matches the market's prices paid out +0.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −16.9%
at market prices · 85 matcheschart →
Home wins in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 85 matches the market's prices paid out −16.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −17.1%
at market prices · 85 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 85 matches the market's prices paid out −17.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −17.4%
at market prices · 85 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 85 matches the market's prices paid out −17.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −18.0%
at market prices · 85 matcheschart →
Draws in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 85 matches the market's prices paid out −18.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duisburg | 24 | 15.7 | +8.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Viktoria Koln | 18 | 11.6 | +6.4 | |
| 3 | RW Essen | 18 | 16.0 | +2.0 | |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 15 | 15.4 | -0.4 | |
| 5 |  Saarbrucken | 14 | 13.0 | +1.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Wehen | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | |
| 19 | Grossaspach | 8 | 11.3 | -3.3 | |
| 20 | TSV Havelse | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisDuisburg24 ptsViktoria Koln18 ptsRW Essen18 ptsHansa Rostock15 ptsSaarbrucken14 pts
Mannheim13 ptsHoffenheim II13 ptsPreussen Munster12 ptsAlemannia Aachen11 ptsDusseldorf11 pts
Stuttgart II11 ptsVerl11 ptsFortuna Koln10 ptsMeppen10 ptsRegensburg8 ptsWurzburger Kickers8 ptsIngolstadt8 ptsWehen8 ptsGrossaspach8 ptsTSV Havelse5 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+