Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
Duisburg 45%Viktoria Koln 23%RW Essen 12%
chance of winning the league · 74 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
Duisburg 68%Viktoria Koln 47%RW Essen 27%
chance of automatic promotion · 70 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
TSV Havelse 92%Grossaspach 92%Fortuna Koln 63%
chance of going down · 45 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
Verl – Wehen+12.1%
Home win · data 49% vs market 36%
Fastest starters
Alemannia Aachen41%
7 of their 17 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Mannheim40%
8 of their 20 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+5.3%HT Over 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +5.3% at market prices across 110 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-4.3 ptsRegensburg produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
48%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Verl – Wehen2026-10-31 13:00Home winModel 48.6%Implied 36.5%▲ +12.1%- Grossaspach – RW Essen2026-11-01 15:30Away winModel 59.3%Implied 50.5%▲ +8.8%
- TSV Havelse – Ingolstadt2026-10-31 13:00FT O3.5Model 52.8%Implied 48.8%▲ +4.0%
- Saarbrucken – Mannheim2026-11-01 12:30Home winModel 50.3%Implied 47.8%▲ +2.5%
- Duisburg – Stuttgart II2026-10-31 13:00Away winModel 20.2%Implied 18.9%▲ +1.3%
- Hoffenheim II – Viktoria Koln2026-10-31 13:00Over 1.5 HTModel 52.0%Implied 50.8%▲ +1.3%
- Regensburg – Hansa Rostock2026-10-31 13:00Home winModel 35.8%Implied 35.0%▲ +0.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Verl– Wehen | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | Home win | 48.6% | 36.5% | ▲ +12.1% | 2.74 |
| 2 |  Grossaspach– RW Essen | 2026-11-01 | 15:30 | Away win | 59.3% | 50.5% | ▲ +8.8% | 1.98 |
| 3 |  TSV Havelse– Ingolstadt | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | FT O3.5 | 52.8% | 48.8% | ▲ +4.0% | 2.05 |
| 4 |  Saarbrucken– Mannheim | 2026-11-01 | 12:30 | Home win | 50.3% | 47.8% | ▲ +2.5% | 2.09 |
| 5 |  Duisburg– Stuttgart II | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | Away win | 20.2% | 18.9% | ▲ +1.3% | 5.30 |
| 6 |  Hoffenheim II– Viktoria Koln | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 52.0% | 50.8% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.97 |
| 7 |  Regensburg– Hansa Rostock | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | Home win | 35.8% | 35.0% | ▲ +0.8% | 2.86 |
Add 3. Liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining 3. Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Duisburg win the 2026-2027 title in 45% of them, projecting ~71 points; Viktoria Koln are next at 23%. At the other end, Grossaspach finish in the bottom three in 85% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duisburg | 25 | 71 | 62–79 | 45% | 88% | — |
| 2 | Viktoria Koln | 23 | 67 | 58–76 | 23% | 75% | <1% |
| 3 | RW Essen | 21 | 64 | 55–73 | 12% | 57% | <1% |
| 4 |  Alemannia Aachen | 17 | 61 | 53–70 | 6% | 40% | <1% |
| 5 | Hansa Rostock | 16 | 61 | 53–70 | 6% | 39% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Fortuna Koln | 10 | 40 | 32–48 | — | <1% | 45% |
| 19 | Grossaspach | 12 | 34 | 26–42 | — | — | 85% |
| 20 | TSV Havelse | 9 | 34 | 26–42 | — | — | 84% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 270 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/germany/3-liga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="3. Liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/germany/3-liga">3. Liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every 3. Liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Over 1.5▲ +5.3%
at market prices · 110 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 110 matches the market's prices paid out +5.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −2.7%
at market prices · 110 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 110 matches the market's prices paid out −2.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −3.8%
at market prices · 110 matcheschart →
Away wins in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 110 matches the market's prices paid out −3.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −5.2%
at market prices · 110 matcheschart →
Home wins in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 110 matches the market's prices paid out −5.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −14.2%
at market prices · 110 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 110 matches the market's prices paid out −14.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −15.6%
at market prices · 110 matcheschart →
Draws in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 110 matches the market's prices paid out −15.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −16.8%
at market prices · 110 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in 3. Liga, 2026-2027: across 110 matches the market's prices paid out −16.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duisburg | 25 | 18.8 | +6.2 | |
| 2 | Viktoria Koln | 23 | 16.7 | +6.3 | |
| 3 | RW Essen | 21 | 19.4 | +1.6 | |
| 4 | Saarbrucken | 17 | 16.0 | +1.0 | |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 17 | 17.2 | -0.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Regensburg | 10 | 14.3 | -4.3 | |
| 19 | Fortuna Koln | 10 | 13.0 | -3.0 | |
| 20 | TSV Havelse | 9 | 10.1 | -1.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisDuisburg25 ptsViktoria Koln23 ptsRW Essen21 ptsSaarbrucken17 ptsAlemannia Aachen17 ptsIngolstadt17 ptsMannheim16 ptsHoffenheim II16 ptsHansa Rostock16 ptsWehen15 ptsPreussen Munster15 ptsDusseldorf15 ptsMeppen14 ptsStuttgart II14 ptsVerl12 ptsGrossaspach12 ptsWurzburger Kickers11 ptsRegensburg10 ptsFortuna Koln10 ptsTSV Havelse9 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+