3. Liga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Germany · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Duisburg (60%), Viktoria Koln (13%), RW Essen (7%). 74 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg | 9 | 24 | 7364–82 | 60% | 50 from 29 (1.72/game) |
| Viktoria Koln | 9 | 19 | 6556–74 | 13% | 55 from 29 (1.90/game) |
| RW Essen | 10 | 18 | 6253–71 | 7% | 56 from 28 (2.00/game) |
| Hansa Rostock | 10 | 15 | 6253–71 | 6% | 59 from 28 (2.11/game) |
| Saarbrucken | 10 | 17 | 6051–69 | 4% | 57 from 28 (2.04/game) |
| Verl | 9 | 12 | 6051–69 | 4% | 62 from 29 (2.14/game) |
| Alemannia Aachen | 10 | 14 | 5950–68 | 3% | 60 from 28 (2.14/game) |
| Ingolstadt | 10 | 14 | 5647–65 | 1% | 60 from 28 (2.14/game) |
Below 1%: Hoffenheim II, Wehen, Dusseldorf, Regensburg, Preussen Munster, Stuttgart II, Mannheim, Wurzburger Kickers, Meppen, Fortuna Koln, Grossaspach, TSV Havelse.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 283 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).