3. Liga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Germany · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 5 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Duisburg (32%), Hansa Rostock (16%), Alemannia Aachen (11%). 74 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg | 7 | 18 | 6858–77 | 32% | 56 from 31 (1.81/game) |
| Hansa Rostock | 7 | 12 | 6455–73 | 16% | 62 from 31 (2.00/game) |
| Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 11 | 6253–71 | 11% | 63 from 31 (2.03/game) |
| Viktoria Koln | 7 | 15 | 6253–71 | 11% | 59 from 31 (1.90/game) |
| RW Essen | 7 | 14 | 6252–71 | 10% | 60 from 31 (1.94/game) |
| Verl | 7 | 10 | 6151–70 | 8% | 64 from 31 (2.06/game) |
| Saarbrucken | 7 | 13 | 6051–69 | 7% | 61 from 31 (1.97/game) |
| Hoffenheim II | 7 | 13 | 5546–64 | 2% | 61 from 31 (1.97/game) |
| Preussen Munster | 7 | 11 | 5546–65 | 2% | 63 from 31 (2.03/game) |
| Ingolstadt | 7 | 8 | 5445–63 | 1% | 66 from 31 (2.13/game) |
Below 1%: Fortuna Koln, Dusseldorf, Mannheim, Regensburg, Wehen, Wurzburger Kickers, Stuttgart II, Grossaspach, Meppen, TSV Havelse.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 310 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).