How many points are needed to stay up in 3. Liga 2026/27?

Across 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 2026/27 3. Liga season (updated 18 Oct 2026), 42 final points were enough to stay up in 50% of simulated seasons, and 45 points were enough in 90% of simulated seasons.

Who will go down? (3. Liga 2026/27)

Clubs with the lowest simulated survival probabilities in 3. Liga as of 18 Oct 2026: TSV Havelse (4%, currently 5 pts from 9 games); Grossaspach (30%, currently 12 pts from 10 games); Fortuna Koln (47%, currently 10 pts from 10 games); Meppen (59%, currently 10 pts from 9 games); Wurzburger Kickers (67%, currently 11 pts from 10 games).

3. Liga relegation battle 2026/27: who will go down?

Germany · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026

Lowest survival chances in 3. Liga: TSV Havelse (4%), Grossaspach (30%), Fortuna Koln (47%). 45 points kept a club up in 90% of 10,000 simulations.

Points line — 50% of simulations

42 pts

enough to stay up in half the simulated seasons

Points line — 90% of simulations

45 pts

enough to stay up in nine seasons out of ten

Survival chances, club by club

Club	P	Pts	Proj. pts	Survive	Needs (90% line)
TSV Havelse	9	5	3123–39	4%	40 from 29 (1.38/game)
Grossaspach	10	12	4032–48	30%	33 from 28 (1.18/game)
Fortuna Koln	10	10	4234–50	47%	35 from 28 (1.25/game)
Meppen	9	10	4536–53	59%	35 from 29 (1.21/game)
Wurzburger Kickers	10	11	4637–55	67%	34 from 28 (1.21/game)
Mannheim	10	13	4840–57	80%	32 from 28 (1.14/game)
Stuttgart II	10	14	4940–58	82%	31 from 28 (1.11/game)
Preussen Munster	10	12	4940–58	83%	33 from 28 (1.18/game)
Regensburg	10	10	5041–59	85%	35 from 28 (1.25/game)
Dusseldorf	10	14	5042–59	87%	31 from 28 (1.11/game)
Wehen	10	12	5243–61	91%	33 from 28 (1.18/game)
Hoffenheim II	9	13	5243–62	92%	32 from 29 (1.10/game)
Ingolstadt	10	14	5647–65	97%	31 from 28 (1.11/game)
Verl	9	12	6051–69	99%	33 from 29 (1.14/game)

Above 99%: Duisburg, Viktoria Koln, RW Essen, Hansa Rostock, Saarbrucken, Alemannia Aachen.

Tabellenrechner & Punkte-Rechner (Klassenerhalt / 40-Punkte-Marke)

What does each club need?

Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to stay up.

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How these chances are made

A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 283 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes outside the relegation places (top 16). The points line is what the club finishing 17th ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.

The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).