3. Liga predicted table 2026/27
Germany · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 October 2026
- Duisburg are the most likely 3. Liga champions, finishing first in 60% of 10,000 simulations (projected 73 points; Viktoria Koln next on 13%).
- TSV Havelse (96%), Grossaspach (70%), Fortuna Koln (53%) are more likely than not to finish in the relegated places.
- Stuttgart II sit 7th today but are projected to finish 14th — the model expects them to drop below their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Promoted | Promotion play-off | Relegated | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duisburg | 9 | 24 | 7364–82 | 78% | 10% | 0% | 1st (60%) |
| 2 | Viktoria Koln | 9 | 19 | 6556–74 | 34% | 16% | <1% | 2nd (21%) |
| 3 | RW Essen | 10 | 18 | 6253–71 | 21% | 14% | <1% | 2nd (14%) |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 10 | 15 | 6253–71 | 19% | 14% | <1% | 3rd (14%) |
| 5 | Saarbrucken | 10 | 17 | 6051–69 | 13% | 11% | <1% | 4th (12%) |
| 6 | Verl | 9 | 12 | 6051–69 | 13% | 11% | 1% | 5th (11%) |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 10 | 14 | 5950–68 | 11% | 9% | <1% | 6th (11%) |
| 8 | Ingolstadt | 10 | 14 | 5647–65 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 8th (10%) |
| 9 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 13 | 5243–62 | 2% | 3% | 8% | 10th (8%) |
| 10 | Wehen | 10 | 12 | 5243–61 | 1% | 2% | 9% | 10th (9%) |
| 11 | Dusseldorf | 10 | 14 | 5042–59 | <1% | 1% | 13% | 12th (9%) |
| 12 | Regensburg | 10 | 10 | 5041–59 | <1% | 1% | 15% | 13th (9%) |
| 13 | Preussen Munster | 10 | 12 | 4940–58 | <1% | <1% | 17% | 13th (9%) |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 10 | 14 | 4940–58 | <1% | <1% | 18% | 15th (9%) |
| 15 | Mannheim | 10 | 13 | 4840–57 | <1% | <1% | 20% | 14th (9%) |
| 16 | Wurzburger Kickers | 10 | 11 | 4637–55 | <1% | <1% | 33% | 18th (11%) |
| 17 | Meppen | 9 | 10 | 4536–53 | <1% | <1% | 41% | 18th (13%) |
| 18 | Fortuna Koln | 10 | 10 | 4234–50 | <1% | <1% | 53% | 19th (17%) |
| 19 | Grossaspach | 10 | 12 | 4032–48 | 0% | <1% | 70% | 19th (28%) |
| 20 | TSV Havelse | 9 | 5 | 3123–39 | 0% | 0% | 96% | 20th (72%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 283 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
