Who will go up? (3. Liga 2026/27)

Leading contenders to finish in the automatic promotion places in 3. Liga as of 18 Oct 2026: Duisburg (78%, currently 24 pts from 9 games); Viktoria Koln (34%, currently 19 pts from 9 games); RW Essen (21%, currently 18 pts from 10 games); Hansa Rostock (19%, currently 15 pts from 10 games); Saarbrucken (13%, currently 17 pts from 10 games).

3. Liga promotion race 2026/27: who will go up?

Q: How many points are needed to finish in the automatic promotion places in 3. Liga 2026/27?

Across 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 2026/27 3. Liga season (updated 18 Oct 2026), 66 final points were enough to finish in the automatic promotion places in 50% of simulated seasons, and 70 points were enough in 90% of simulated seasons.

Germany · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026

Most likely to finish in the automatic promotion places: Duisburg (78%), Viktoria Koln (34%), RW Essen (21%). 70 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.

Points line — 50% of simulations

66 pts

enough to finish in the automatic promotion places in half the simulated seasons

Points line — 90% of simulations

70 pts

enough to finish in the automatic promotion places in nine seasons out of ten

Promoted chances, club by club

Club	P	Pts	Proj. pts	Promoted	Needs (90% line)
Duisburg	9	24	7364–82	78%	46 from 29 (1.59/game)
Viktoria Koln	9	19	6556–74	34%	51 from 29 (1.76/game)
RW Essen	10	18	6253–71	21%	52 from 28 (1.86/game)
Hansa Rostock	10	15	6253–71	19%	55 from 28 (1.96/game)
Saarbrucken	10	17	6051–69	13%	53 from 28 (1.89/game)
Verl	9	12	6051–69	13%	58 from 29 (2.00/game)
Alemannia Aachen	10	14	5950–68	11%	56 from 28 (2.00/game)
Ingolstadt	10	14	5647–65	5%	56 from 28 (2.00/game)
Hoffenheim II	9	13	5243–62	2%	57 from 29 (1.97/game)
Wehen	10	12	5243–61	1%	58 from 28 (2.07/game)

Below 1%: Dusseldorf, Regensburg, Preussen Munster, Stuttgart II, Mannheim, Wurzburger Kickers, Meppen, Fortuna Koln, Grossaspach, TSV Havelse.

Tabellenrechner & Punkte-Rechner

What does each club need?

Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to finish in the automatic promotion places.

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How these chances are made

A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 283 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes in the top 2. The points line is what the club finishing 3rd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.

The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).