MLS 2022 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	CF Montreal	34	65	49.0	+16.0Outperforming ++	9	-0.6	+16.6	1:2 vs New York Red Bulls (+2.2)	1:2 vs Real Salt Lake (-2.0)
2	Philadelphia Union	34	67	54.0	+13.0Outperforming ++	4	+8.6	+4.4	0:2 vs New York City (+2.1)	2:1 vs Toronto FC (-1.5)
3	Inter Miami	34	48	38.0	+10.0Outperforming ++	27	+9.7	+0.3	0:1 vs Seattle Sounders (+2.1)	1:3 vs Houston Dynamo (-1.5)
4	Austin FC	34	56	47.8	+8.2Outperforming ++	13	+0.6	+7.6	1:2 vs Los Angeles FC (+2.3)	1:2 vs Portland Timbers (-1.8)
5	Los Angeles FC	34	67	60.6	+6.4Outperforming ++	1	+6.0	+0.4	0:2 vs Columbus Crew (+1.9)	1:2 vs Austin FC (-2.1)
6	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	43	37.2	+5.8Outperforming ++	28	+9.7	-3.8	0:2 vs FC Dallas (+2.3)	1:3 vs Chicago Fire (-1.4)
7	FC Dallas	34	53	47.5	+5.5Outperforming ++	14	+5.0	+0.5	1:3 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (+2.1)	0:2 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (-2.1)
8	FC Cincinnati	34	49	43.8	+5.2Outperforming ++	20	-2.5	+7.8	1:2 vs Orlando City (+2.3)	2:3 vs Chicago Fire (-2.2)
9	Minnesota United	34	48	45.0	+3.0Outperforming	16	+0.9	+2.1	0:1 vs New York Red Bulls (+2.3)	0:1 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.9)
10	Real Salt Lake	34	47	44.4	+2.6Outperforming	18	+2.9	-0.3	1:2 vs CF Montreal (+2.2)	0:1 vs FC Dallas (-1.7)
11	Charlotte	34	42	39.6	+2.4Outperforming	25	+5.8	-3.4	1:3 vs New York City (+2.4)	2:3 vs Chicago Fire (-1.6)
12	Orlando City	34	48	46.6	+1.4On expectation	15	-1.3	+2.7	0:2 vs Columbus Crew (+2.1)	1:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-2.1)
13	Portland Timbers	34	46	44.9	+1.1On expectation	17	+1.9	-0.9	1:2 vs Austin FC (+2.0)	1:3 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)
14	Nashville SC	34	50	51.2	-1.2On expectation	7	-6.8	+5.7	0:1 vs Los Angeles FC (+2.1)	1:2 vs Houston Dynamo (-2.1)
15	Sporting Kansas City	34	40	41.3	-1.3On expectation	22	+3.4	-4.7	1:2 vs Nashville SC (+2.2)	0:1 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (-1.7)
16	New York Red Bulls	34	53	55.1	-2.1Underperforming	3	-9.6	+7.5	0:1 vs CF Montreal (+2.0)	0:1 vs Minnesota United (-2.0)
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	50	52.4	-2.4Underperforming	5	-2.7	+0.3	1:2 vs New England Revolution (+1.9)	2:3 vs San Jose Earthquakes (-1.9)
18	New York City	34	55	57.6	-2.6Underperforming	2	-0.7	-2.0	0:2 vs Chicago Fire (+1.8)	1:3 vs Charlotte (-2.2)
19	Columbus Crew	34	46	48.9	-2.9Underperforming	10	-2.9	0.0	1:2 vs Atlanta Utd (+2.0)	0:2 vs Orlando City (-1.8)
20	San Jose Earthquakes	34	35	39.5	-4.5Underperforming	26	+2.3	-6.8	2:3 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (+2.2)	0:1 vs Inter Miami (-1.7)
21	Colorado Rapids	34	43	47.8	-4.8Underperforming	12	+4.0	-8.8	4:5 vs New York Red Bulls (+2.2)	2:3 vs Austin FC (-1.9)
22	Chicago Fire	34	39	44.2	-5.2Underperforming −−	19	-4.5	-0.8	2:3 vs FC Cincinnati (+2.4)	1:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.8)
23	Houston Dynamo	34	36	41.7	-5.7Underperforming −−	21	-3.0	-2.7	1:2 vs Nashville SC (+2.3)	1:2 vs Charlotte (-1.7)
24	Toronto FC	34	34	39.7	-5.7Underperforming −−	24	-1.0	-4.7	3:4 vs Nashville SC (+2.1)	1:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.8)
25	Atlanta Utd	34	40	48.5	-8.5Underperforming −−	11	-1.2	-7.3	0:1 vs DC United (+1.9)	0:3 vs Austin FC (-1.8)
26	Seattle Sounders	34	41	49.8	-8.8Underperforming −−	8	-0.7	-8.1	1:2 vs Minnesota United (+1.9)	1:2 vs Real Salt Lake (-1.9)
27	New England Revolution	34	42	51.4	-9.4Underperforming −−	6	-3.8	-5.6	0:3 vs Orlando City (+2.0)	2:3 vs Real Salt Lake (-1.9)
28	DC United	34	27	39.9	-12.9Underperforming −−	23	-8.7	-4.2	1:2 vs New York City (+2.3)	2:3 vs Austin FC (-1.7)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	CF Montreal	34	65	49.0	+16.0Outperforming ++	9	-0.6	+16.6	1:2 vs New York Red Bulls (+2.2)	1:2 vs Real Salt Lake (-2.0)
2	Philadelphia Union	34	67	54.0	+13.0Outperforming ++	4	+8.6	+4.4	0:2 vs New York City (+2.1)	2:1 vs Toronto FC (-1.5)
3	Inter Miami	34	48	38.0	+10.0Outperforming ++	27	+9.7	+0.3	0:1 vs Seattle Sounders (+2.1)	1:3 vs Houston Dynamo (-1.5)
4	Austin FC	34	56	47.8	+8.2Outperforming ++	13	+0.6	+7.6	1:2 vs Los Angeles FC (+2.3)	1:2 vs Portland Timbers (-1.8)
5	Los Angeles FC	34	67	60.6	+6.4Outperforming ++	1	+6.0	+0.4	0:2 vs Columbus Crew (+1.9)	1:2 vs Austin FC (-2.1)
6	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	43	37.2	+5.8Outperforming ++	28	+9.7	-3.8	0:2 vs FC Dallas (+2.3)	1:3 vs Chicago Fire (-1.4)
7	FC Dallas	34	53	47.5	+5.5Outperforming ++	14	+5.0	+0.5	1:3 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (+2.1)	0:2 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (-2.1)
8	FC Cincinnati	34	49	43.8	+5.2Outperforming ++	20	-2.5	+7.8	1:2 vs Orlando City (+2.3)	2:3 vs Chicago Fire (-2.2)
9	Minnesota United	34	48	45.0	+3.0Outperforming	16	+0.9	+2.1	0:1 vs New York Red Bulls (+2.3)	0:1 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.9)
10	Real Salt Lake	34	47	44.4	+2.6Outperforming	18	+2.9	-0.3	1:2 vs CF Montreal (+2.2)	0:1 vs FC Dallas (-1.7)
11	Charlotte	34	42	39.6	+2.4Outperforming	25	+5.8	-3.4	1:3 vs New York City (+2.4)	2:3 vs Chicago Fire (-1.6)
12	Orlando City	34	48	46.6	+1.4On expectation	15	-1.3	+2.7	0:2 vs Columbus Crew (+2.1)	1:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-2.1)
13	Portland Timbers	34	46	44.9	+1.1On expectation	17	+1.9	-0.9	1:2 vs Austin FC (+2.0)	1:3 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)
14	Nashville SC	34	50	51.2	-1.2On expectation	7	-6.8	+5.7	0:1 vs Los Angeles FC (+2.1)	1:2 vs Houston Dynamo (-2.1)
15	Sporting Kansas City	34	40	41.3	-1.3On expectation	22	+3.4	-4.7	1:2 vs Nashville SC (+2.2)	0:1 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (-1.7)
16	New York Red Bulls	34	53	55.1	-2.1Underperforming	3	-9.6	+7.5	0:1 vs CF Montreal (+2.0)	0:1 vs Minnesota United (-2.0)
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	50	52.4	-2.4Underperforming	5	-2.7	+0.3	1:2 vs New England Revolution (+1.9)	2:3 vs San Jose Earthquakes (-1.9)
18	New York City	34	55	57.6	-2.6Underperforming	2	-0.7	-2.0	0:2 vs Chicago Fire (+1.8)	1:3 vs Charlotte (-2.2)
19	Columbus Crew	34	46	48.9	-2.9Underperforming	10	-2.9	0.0	1:2 vs Atlanta Utd (+2.0)	0:2 vs Orlando City (-1.8)
20	San Jose Earthquakes	34	35	39.5	-4.5Underperforming	26	+2.3	-6.8	2:3 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (+2.2)	0:1 vs Inter Miami (-1.7)
21	Colorado Rapids	34	43	47.8	-4.8Underperforming	12	+4.0	-8.8	4:5 vs New York Red Bulls (+2.2)	2:3 vs Austin FC (-1.9)
22	Chicago Fire	34	39	44.2	-5.2Underperforming −−	19	-4.5	-0.8	2:3 vs FC Cincinnati (+2.4)	1:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.8)
23	Houston Dynamo	34	36	41.7	-5.7Underperforming −−	21	-3.0	-2.7	1:2 vs Nashville SC (+2.3)	1:2 vs Charlotte (-1.7)
24	Toronto FC	34	34	39.7	-5.7Underperforming −−	24	-1.0	-4.7	3:4 vs Nashville SC (+2.1)	1:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.8)
25	Atlanta Utd	34	40	48.5	-8.5Underperforming −−	11	-1.2	-7.3	0:1 vs DC United (+1.9)	0:3 vs Austin FC (-1.8)
26	Seattle Sounders	34	41	49.8	-8.8Underperforming −−	8	-0.7	-8.1	1:2 vs Minnesota United (+1.9)	1:2 vs Real Salt Lake (-1.9)
27	New England Revolution	34	42	51.4	-9.4Underperforming −−	6	-3.8	-5.6	0:3 vs Orlando City (+2.0)	2:3 vs Real Salt Lake (-1.9)
28	DC United	34	27	39.9	-12.9Underperforming −−	23	-8.7	-4.2	1:2 vs New York City (+2.3)	2:3 vs Austin FC (-1.7)