MLS 2021 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	New England Revolution	34	73	56.6	+16.4Outperforming ++	3	+4.6	+11.9	2:3 vs New York City (+2.0)	0:1 vs Inter Miami (-2.3)
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	49	35.6	+13.4Outperforming ++	27	+11.2	+2.1	1:2 vs Austin FC (+2.3)	0:1 vs Portland Timbers (-1.5)
3	Portland Timbers	34	55	43.6	+11.3Outperforming ++	17	+6.0	+2.4	0:2 vs Seattle Sounders (+2.2)	1:0 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (-1.9)
4	Seattle Sounders	34	60	50.7	+9.3Outperforming ++	7	-2.0	+11.2	0:1 vs Austin FC (+2.2)	0:2 vs Portland Timbers (-2.0)
5	Colorado Rapids	34	61	52.4	+8.6Outperforming ++	4	+1.4	+7.2	0:1 vs Austin FC (+1.9)	1:3 vs Austin FC (-2.0)
6	Sporting Kansas City	34	58	51.3	+6.7Outperforming ++	6	+0.3	+6.4	1:4 vs Los Angeles FC (+2.1)	1:2 vs FC Dallas (-2.0)
7	Atlanta Utd	34	51	46.8	+4.2Outperforming	12	+3.0	+1.3	2:3 vs Columbus Crew (+2.0)	0:1 vs Columbus Crew (-1.6)
8	Philadelphia Union	34	54	50.2	+3.8Outperforming	9	+6.0	-2.3	0:2 vs Chicago Fire (+1.8)	1:2 vs Inter Miami (-1.6)
9	CF Montreal	34	46	42.2	+3.8Outperforming	20	+5.0	-1.3	0:2 vs Inter Miami (+2.2)	1:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.7)
10	Real Salt Lake	34	48	44.9	+3.1Outperforming	16	+3.6	-0.5	1:2 vs Minnesota United (+2.1)	3:4 vs San Jose Earthquakes (-2.0)
11	Nashville SC	34	54	51.5	+2.5Outperforming	5	+2.7	-0.2	0:1 vs CF Montreal (+1.8)	2:1 vs Toronto FC (-1.5)
12	Columbus Crew	34	47	45.0	+1.9On expectation	15	+5.4	-3.4	1:3 vs DC United (+2.1)	2:3 vs Atlanta Utd (-1.7)
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	48	46.6	+1.4On expectation	13	+0.6	+0.8	2:3 vs Inter Miami (+2.2)	1:2 vs San Jose Earthquakes (-1.8)
14	DC United	34	47	45.9	+1.1On expectation	14	+6.2	-5.1	2:1 vs New York City (+2.0)	1:3 vs Columbus Crew (-1.9)
15	New York Red Bulls	34	48	46.9	+1.1On expectation	11	+2.1	-1.0	0:1 vs New York City (+2.2)	0:1 vs Chicago Fire (-1.9)
16	Orlando City	34	51	50.3	+0.7On expectation	8	+0.6	+0.1	0:2 vs CF Montreal (+1.9)	1:2 vs New York Red Bulls (-1.9)
17	Minnesota United	34	49	48.5	+0.5On expectation	10	+2.8	-2.3	0:1 vs Portland Timbers (+1.9)	0:1 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.9)
18	San Jose Earthquakes	34	41	41.4	-0.4On expectation	23	-5.8	+5.5	3:4 vs Real Salt Lake (+2.2)	0:2 vs Portland Timbers (-1.7)
19	Inter Miami	34	41	42.3	-1.3On expectation	19	-3.3	+2.0	0:1 vs New England Revolution (+2.5)	2:3 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.0)
20	Chicago Fire	34	34	41.0	-7.0Underperforming −−	25	+0.6	-7.6	0:1 vs New York Red Bulls (+2.1)	0:1 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.8)
21	New York City	34	51	59.2	-8.2Underperforming −−	1	+0.2	-8.4	1:2 vs Los Angeles FC (+2.1)	0:1 vs New York Red Bulls (-1.9)
22	FC Dallas	34	33	41.8	-8.8Underperforming −−	21	-6.5	-5.3	1:2 vs Sporting Kansas City (+2.2)	0:1 vs Seattle Sounders (-1.7)
23	Austin FC	34	31	41.1	-10.1Underperforming −−	24	-3.4	-6.7	1:3 vs Colorado Rapids (+2.2)	1:2 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (-2.0)
24	Houston Dynamo	34	30	43.0	-13.0Underperforming −−	18	-2.8	-10.2	2:1 vs Seattle Sounders (+1.6)	0:2 vs Portland Timbers (-1.6)
25	Toronto FC	34	28	41.4	-13.4Underperforming −−	22	-5.8	-7.6	2:3 vs New England Revolution (+2.3)	0:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.7)
26	Los Angeles FC	34	45	59.0	-14.0Underperforming −−	2	-4.4	-9.6	2:3 vs FC Dallas (+1.5)	1:2 vs New York City (-1.9)
27	FC Cincinnati	34	20	35.7	-15.7Underperforming −−	26	-13.8	-1.9	0:1 vs Chicago Fire (+2.1)	0:1 vs Inter Miami (-1.4)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	New England Revolution	34	73	56.6	+16.4Outperforming ++	3	+4.6	+11.9	2:3 vs New York City (+2.0)	0:1 vs Inter Miami (-2.3)
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	49	35.6	+13.4Outperforming ++	27	+11.2	+2.1	1:2 vs Austin FC (+2.3)	0:1 vs Portland Timbers (-1.5)
3	Portland Timbers	34	55	43.6	+11.3Outperforming ++	17	+6.0	+2.4	0:2 vs Seattle Sounders (+2.2)	1:0 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (-1.9)
4	Seattle Sounders	34	60	50.7	+9.3Outperforming ++	7	-2.0	+11.2	0:1 vs Austin FC (+2.2)	0:2 vs Portland Timbers (-2.0)
5	Colorado Rapids	34	61	52.4	+8.6Outperforming ++	4	+1.4	+7.2	0:1 vs Austin FC (+1.9)	1:3 vs Austin FC (-2.0)
6	Sporting Kansas City	34	58	51.3	+6.7Outperforming ++	6	+0.3	+6.4	1:4 vs Los Angeles FC (+2.1)	1:2 vs FC Dallas (-2.0)
7	Atlanta Utd	34	51	46.8	+4.2Outperforming	12	+3.0	+1.3	2:3 vs Columbus Crew (+2.0)	0:1 vs Columbus Crew (-1.6)
8	Philadelphia Union	34	54	50.2	+3.8Outperforming	9	+6.0	-2.3	0:2 vs Chicago Fire (+1.8)	1:2 vs Inter Miami (-1.6)
9	CF Montreal	34	46	42.2	+3.8Outperforming	20	+5.0	-1.3	0:2 vs Inter Miami (+2.2)	1:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.7)
10	Real Salt Lake	34	48	44.9	+3.1Outperforming	16	+3.6	-0.5	1:2 vs Minnesota United (+2.1)	3:4 vs San Jose Earthquakes (-2.0)
11	Nashville SC	34	54	51.5	+2.5Outperforming	5	+2.7	-0.2	0:1 vs CF Montreal (+1.8)	2:1 vs Toronto FC (-1.5)
12	Columbus Crew	34	47	45.0	+1.9On expectation	15	+5.4	-3.4	1:3 vs DC United (+2.1)	2:3 vs Atlanta Utd (-1.7)
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	48	46.6	+1.4On expectation	13	+0.6	+0.8	2:3 vs Inter Miami (+2.2)	1:2 vs San Jose Earthquakes (-1.8)
14	DC United	34	47	45.9	+1.1On expectation	14	+6.2	-5.1	2:1 vs New York City (+2.0)	1:3 vs Columbus Crew (-1.9)
15	New York Red Bulls	34	48	46.9	+1.1On expectation	11	+2.1	-1.0	0:1 vs New York City (+2.2)	0:1 vs Chicago Fire (-1.9)
16	Orlando City	34	51	50.3	+0.7On expectation	8	+0.6	+0.1	0:2 vs CF Montreal (+1.9)	1:2 vs New York Red Bulls (-1.9)
17	Minnesota United	34	49	48.5	+0.5On expectation	10	+2.8	-2.3	0:1 vs Portland Timbers (+1.9)	0:1 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.9)
18	San Jose Earthquakes	34	41	41.4	-0.4On expectation	23	-5.8	+5.5	3:4 vs Real Salt Lake (+2.2)	0:2 vs Portland Timbers (-1.7)
19	Inter Miami	34	41	42.3	-1.3On expectation	19	-3.3	+2.0	0:1 vs New England Revolution (+2.5)	2:3 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.0)
20	Chicago Fire	34	34	41.0	-7.0Underperforming −−	25	+0.6	-7.6	0:1 vs New York Red Bulls (+2.1)	0:1 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.8)
21	New York City	34	51	59.2	-8.2Underperforming −−	1	+0.2	-8.4	1:2 vs Los Angeles FC (+2.1)	0:1 vs New York Red Bulls (-1.9)
22	FC Dallas	34	33	41.8	-8.8Underperforming −−	21	-6.5	-5.3	1:2 vs Sporting Kansas City (+2.2)	0:1 vs Seattle Sounders (-1.7)
23	Austin FC	34	31	41.1	-10.1Underperforming −−	24	-3.4	-6.7	1:3 vs Colorado Rapids (+2.2)	1:2 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (-2.0)
24	Houston Dynamo	34	30	43.0	-13.0Underperforming −−	18	-2.8	-10.2	2:1 vs Seattle Sounders (+1.6)	0:2 vs Portland Timbers (-1.6)
25	Toronto FC	34	28	41.4	-13.4Underperforming −−	22	-5.8	-7.6	2:3 vs New England Revolution (+2.3)	0:2 vs FC Cincinnati (-1.7)
26	Los Angeles FC	34	45	59.0	-14.0Underperforming −−	2	-4.4	-9.6	2:3 vs FC Dallas (+1.5)	1:2 vs New York City (-1.9)
27	FC Cincinnati	34	20	35.7	-15.7Underperforming −−	26	-13.8	-1.9	0:1 vs Chicago Fire (+2.1)	0:1 vs Inter Miami (-1.4)