Varberg vs Norrkoping
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-10 · 19:00 CET
DLWWD
DWDWWThe score model made a Norrkoping win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varberg 0.97 – 1.63 Norrkoping.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varberg win | 22.3% | 29.2% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Norrkoping win | 52.5% | 44.5% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 57.4% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 36.4% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 60.4% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 39.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varberg 39.3 / Norrkoping 18.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.