The season in numbers
Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, away wins, returned −3.4% at market prices across 200 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Ljungskile produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Varnamo – Falkenberg2026-10-11 13:00Away winModel 52.5%Implied 36.8%▲ +15.7%- Norrby – Oster2026-10-10 15:00Away winModel 42.2%Implied 34.2%▲ +8.0%
- Ostersund – Varberg2026-10-10 13:00Away winModel 38.2%Implied 30.9%▲ +7.3%
- Oddevold – Nordic United2026-10-10 15:00Under 1.5 HTModel 71.7%Implied 64.9%▲ +6.7%
- Landskrona – Sandviken2026-10-10 11:00Over 1.5 HTModel 48.5%Implied 42.7%▲ +5.8%
- Orebro – Ljungskile2026-10-11 11:00Under 1.5 HTModel 70.2%Implied 66.2%▲ +3.9%
- Brage – Helsingborg2026-10-11 15:00Over 2.5Model 62.5%Implied 60.2%▲ +2.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Varnamo– Falkenberg | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Away win | 52.5% | 36.8% | ▲ +15.7% | 2.72 |
| 2 |  Norrby– Oster | 2026-10-10 | 15:00 | Away win | 42.2% | 34.2% | ▲ +8.0% | 2.92 |
| 3 |  Ostersund– Varberg | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Away win | 38.2% | 30.9% | ▲ +7.3% | 3.24 |
| 4 |  Oddevold– Nordic United | 2026-10-10 | 15:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 71.7% | 64.9% | ▲ +6.7% | 1.54 |
| 5 |  Landskrona– Sandviken | 2026-10-10 | 11:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 48.5% | 42.7% | ▲ +5.8% | 2.34 |
| 6 |  Orebro– Ljungskile | 2026-10-11 | 11:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 70.2% | 66.2% | ▲ +3.9% | 1.51 |
| 7 |  Brage– Helsingborg | 2026-10-11 | 15:00 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 60.2% | ▲ +2.2% | 1.66 |
Add Superettan fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Superettan schedule 10,000 times a day. Norrkoping win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~67 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Sundsvall finish in the bottom three in 99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Norrkoping | 55 | 67 | 63–70 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Falkenberg | 45 | 54 | 50–58 | <1% | 96% | — |
| 3 | Varberg | 44 | 52 | 48–56 | — | 89% | — |
| 4 | Ostersund | 43 | 49 | 45–52 | — | 52% | — |
| 5 | Landskrona | 40 | 47 | 44–51 | — | 39% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Norrby | 24 | 30 | 26–33 | — | — | 50% |
| 15 | Orebro | 24 | 29 | 25–32 | — | — | 67% |
| 16 |  Sundsvall | 19 | 23 | 20–26 | — | — | 99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 40 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/sweden/superettan/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Superettan live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/sweden/superettan">Superettan stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Superettan match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norrkoping | 55 | 43.7 | +11.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Falkenberg | 45 | 35.8 | +9.2 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Varberg | 44 | 38.3 | +5.7 | |
| 4 | Ostersund | 43 | 37.2 | +5.8 | |
| 5 | Landskrona | 40 | 34.8 | +5.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Orebro | 24 | 32.1 | -8.1 | underperformed expectations |
| 15 | Brage | 23 | 32.8 | -9.8 | underperformed expectations |
| 16 | Sundsvall | 19 | 25.1 | -6.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+