The season in numbers
Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, over 2.5 goals, returned −6.8% at market prices across 223 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Brage produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Norrkoping – Ostersund2026-10-31 12:00Home winModel 68.3%Implied 45.7%▲ +22.7%- Nordic United – Sundsvall2026-10-31 14:00Under 1.5 HTModel 72.7%Implied 61.0%▲ +11.7%
- Norrby – Varnamo2026-10-31 14:00Under 2.5Model 53.0%Implied 42.7%▲ +10.3%
- Oster – Helsingborg2026-11-02 18:00Home winModel 52.7%Implied 45.7%▲ +7.0%
- Oddevold – Brage2026-10-30 18:00Over 2.5Model 64.1%Implied 60.6%▲ +3.5%
- Landskrona – Varberg2026-10-27 18:00Away winModel 31.9%Implied 30.5%▲ +1.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Norrkoping– Ostersund | 2026-10-31 | 12:00 | Home win | 68.3% | 45.7% | ▲ +22.7% | 2.19 |
| 2 |  Nordic United– Sundsvall | 2026-10-31 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 72.7% | 61.0% | ▲ +11.7% | 1.64 |
| 3 |  Norrby– Varnamo | 2026-10-31 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 42.7% | ▲ +10.3% | 2.34 |
| 4 |  Oster– Helsingborg | 2026-11-02 | 18:00 | Home win | 52.7% | 45.7% | ▲ +7.0% | 2.19 |
| 5 |  Oddevold– Brage | 2026-10-30 | 18:00 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 60.6% | ▲ +3.5% | 1.65 |
| 6 |  Landskrona– Varberg | 2026-10-27 | 18:00 | Away win | 31.9% | 30.5% | ▲ +1.4% | 3.28 |
Add Superettan fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Superettan schedule 10,000 times a day. Norrkoping win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~67 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Sundsvall finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Norrkoping | 62 | 67 | 64–68 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Falkenberg | 51 | 54 | 52–57 | — | >99% | — |
| 3 | Varberg | 46 | 51 | 48–53 | — | 82% | — |
| 4 | Ostersund | 48 | 50 | 48–52 | — | 72% | — |
| 5 | Landskrona | 43 | 48 | 45–50 | — | 37% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Norrby | 27 | 30 | 27–33 | — | — | 67% |
| 15 | Brage | 26 | 29 | 26–32 | — | — | 78% |
| 16 | Sundsvall | 19 | 21 | 19–23 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 17 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Superettan match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norrkoping | 62 | 49.9 | +12.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Falkenberg | 51 | 39.9 | +11.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Ostersund | 48 | 42.8 | +5.2 | |
| 4 | Varberg | 46 | 41.2 | +4.8 | |
| 5 | Landskrona | 43 | 37.9 | +5.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Norrby | 27 | 34.5 | -7.5 | |
| 15 | Brage | 26 | 37.2 | -11.2 | underperformed expectations |
| 16 | Sundsvall | 19 | 26.9 | -7.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+