Oster vs Helsingborg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-11-02 · 19:00 CET
WLLWW
LDLDDThe score model makes an Oster win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Oster win — 52.7% vs 41.6% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oster 1.91 – 1.23 Helsingborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oster win | 52.7% | 41.6% | +11.0% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 26.4% | -3.0% |
| Helsingborg win | 24.0% | 32.0% | -8.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 58.9% | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 38.9% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 61.9% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 40.4% | +5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oster 32.4 / Helsingborg 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Oster vs Helsingborg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.