Superettan 2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Falkenberg	16	31	23.0	+8.0Outperforming ++	5	+1.6	+6.5	1:4 vs Nordic United (+1.9)	2:3 vs Helsingborg (-1.6)
2	Varberg	16	30	25.0	+5.0Outperforming	2	+1.8	+3.1	2:4 vs Oddevold (+1.8)	2:3 vs Landskrona (-1.7)
3	Landskrona	15	25	20.0	+5.0Outperforming	13	+1.3	+3.7	1:3 vs Norrkoping (+2.2)	2:1 vs Sundsvall (-1.5)
4	Nordic United	15	25	20.3	+4.8Outperforming	10	+5.0	-0.3	0:2 vs Ljungskile (+2.1)	1:4 vs Falkenberg (-1.6)
5	Helsingborg	15	23	19.3	+3.7Outperforming	14	+2.2	+1.6	2:3 vs Falkenberg (+1.9)	3:1 vs Nordic United (-1.4)
6	Norrkoping	15	29	25.3	+3.7Outperforming	1	+0.0	+3.7	1:2 vs Oddevold (+1.8)	0:1 vs Norrby (-2.1)
7	Ostersund	16	26	22.4	+3.6Outperforming	8	+2.7	+1.0	1:2 vs Varberg (+1.9)	0:2 vs Norrkoping (-1.3)
8	Oster	16	26	22.6	+3.4Outperforming	6	+4.9	-1.5	3:0 vs Varberg (+1.8)	1:3 vs Falkenberg (-1.5)
9	Norrby	16	18	18.8	-0.8On expectation	15	-0.9	+0.2	0:1 vs Norrkoping (+2.3)	0:1 vs Brage (-1.3)
10	Ljungskile	16	22	23.2	-1.2On expectation	4	+0.1	-1.3	2:3 vs Varnamo (+1.8)	0:2 vs Nordic United (-1.9)
11	Sandviken	16	19	20.2	-1.2On expectation	11	+2.7	-3.9	1:0 vs Ljungskile (+1.7)	0:1 vs Landskrona (-1.4)
12	Oddevold	16	21	23.6	-2.6Underperforming	3	-3.6	+1.1	3:4 vs Brage (+1.7)	1:2 vs Norrkoping (-1.5)
13	Brage	16	17	21.4	-4.4Underperforming	9	-4.0	-0.4	0:3 vs Orebro (+1.7)	2:4 vs Ostersund (-1.5)
14	Orebro	16	15	20.0	-5.0Underperforming −−	12	-2.9	-2.1	2:1 vs Norrkoping (+1.9)	0:1 vs Sundsvall (-1.7)
15	Sundsvall	16	9	16.9	-7.8Underperforming −−	16	-4.6	-3.3	0:1 vs Orebro (+2.0)	0:4 vs Oster (-1.3)
16	Varnamo	16	11	22.4	-11.4Underperforming −−	7	-4.7	-6.7	0:1 vs Sandviken (+1.5)	0:1 vs Orebro (-1.6)