Varnamo vs Varberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-05 · 13:00 CET
WDWLW
DLWWDThe score model made a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnamo 1.29 – 1.74 Varberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varnamo win | 28.0% | 40.2% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.8% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Varberg win | 47.6% | 33.0% | +14.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 56.8% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 36.2% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 60.4% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 38.4% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varnamo 18 / Varberg 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.