Gyeongnam vs Seongnam
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-13 · 09:30 CET
WWDLD
WLDLLThe score model made a Seongnam win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gyeongnam 1.09 – 1.15 Seongnam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyeongnam win | 33.6% | 33.4% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.9% | 29.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Seongnam win | 36.5% | 37.4% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 45.5% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.9% | 25.5% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 51.2% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 31.0% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gyeongnam 49.7 / Seongnam 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gyeongnam vs Seongnam in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.