Ansan Greeners vs Hwaseong
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-12 · 12:00 CET
WLLLW
DWDLLThe score model made a Hwaseong win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ansan Greeners 0.86 – 1.48 Hwaseong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansan Greeners win | 21.1% | 18.2% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 23.1% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Hwaseong win | 51.1% | 58.7% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 55.3% | -14.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.7% | 33.8% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 53.0% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 37.3% | -8.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ansan Greeners 49.6 / Hwaseong 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ansan Greeners vs Hwaseong in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.