Cheonan City vs Hwaseong
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-05 · 12:00 CET
DDDLW
DDWDLThe score model made a Hwaseong win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheonan City 1.07 – 1.45 Hwaseong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheonan City win | 27.2% | 26.9% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.0% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Hwaseong win | 45.1% | 46.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 50.0% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 29.2% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 54.0% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.1% | -1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cheonan City 49 / Hwaseong 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.