Longford vs Kerry
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-05 · 20:30 CET
LWWDD
LLWWWThe score model made a Longford win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Longford 1.63 – 1.07 Kerry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longford win | 50.9% | 33.7% | +17.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 26.7% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Kerry win | 25.4% | 39.6% | -14.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 52.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 32.8% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 56.6% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 36.3% | -10.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Longford 51.2 / Kerry 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.