The season in numbers
Blindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Finn Harps produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Longford– Treaty United | 2026-09-12 | 18:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 79.3% | 70.9% | ▲ +8.3% | 1.41 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Division 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Cork City win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~81 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Finn Harps finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cork City | 68 | 81 | 77–84 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  UC Dublin | 48 | 57 | 53–61 | — | 98% | — |
| 3 |  Bray | 44 | 54 | 50–58 | — | 88% | <1% |
| 4 |  Cobh Ramblers | 42 | 50 | 46–54 | — | 38% | 7% |
| 5 |  Kerry | 42 | 49 | 45–53 | — | 33% | 7% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 |  Wexford | 37 | 45 | 41–50 | — | 6% | 48% |
| 9 | Treaty United | 30 | 38 | 34–42 | — | <1% | 99% |
| 10 |  Finn Harps | 22 | 28 | 24–31 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 30 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/ireland/division-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Division 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/ireland/division-1">Division 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Division 1 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 68 | 62.3 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | UC Dublin | 48 | 45.4 | +2.6 | |
| 3 | Bray | 44 | 45.6 | -1.6 | |
| 4 | Kerry | 42 | 38.4 | +3.6 | |
| 5 | Cobh Ramblers | 42 | 40.9 | +1.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Wexford | 37 | 41.7 | -4.7 | |
| 9 | Treaty United | 30 | 34.3 | -4.3 | |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 22 | 29.4 | -7.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+