The season in numbers
Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +7.4% at market prices across 170 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Finn Harps produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Athlone – Treaty United2026-10-09 18:45Away winModel 28.6%Implied 15.9%▲ +12.7%- Cork City – Finn Harps2026-10-09 18:45Under 1.5 HTModel 63.5%Implied 50.8%▲ +12.7%
- Cobh Ramblers – Kerry2026-10-09 18:45Home winModel 56.5%Implied 45.9%▲ +10.6%
- UC Dublin – Longford2026-10-09 18:45Under 1.5 HTModel 65.9%Implied 63.7%▲ +2.2%
- Bray – Wexford2026-10-09 18:45Away winModel 21.4%Implied 21.1%▲ +0.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Athlone– Treaty United | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | Away win | 28.6% | 15.9% | ▲ +12.7% | 6.30 |
| 2 |  Cork City– Finn Harps | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 63.5% | 50.8% | ▲ +12.7% | 1.97 |
| 3 |  Cobh Ramblers– Kerry | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | Home win | 56.5% | 45.9% | ▲ +10.6% | 2.18 |
| 4 |  UC Dublin– Longford | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 65.9% | 63.7% | ▲ +2.2% | 1.57 |
| 5 |  Bray– Wexford | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | Away win | 21.4% | 21.1% | ▲ +0.3% | 4.74 |
Add Division 1 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Division 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Cork City win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~76 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Wexford finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 71 | 76 | 74–77 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Bray | 53 | 57 | 54–59 | — | >99% | — |
| 3 | UC Dublin | 52 | 55 | 53–58 | — | 96% | — |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 49 | 52 | 50–55 | — | 52% | — |
| 5 | Athlone | 48 | 51 | 48–54 | — | 19% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Wexford | 41 | 43 | 41–45 | — | — | >99% |
| 9 | Treaty United | 36 | 38 | 36–42 | — | — | >99% |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 25 | 26 | 25–28 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 10 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/ireland/division-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Division 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/ireland/division-1">Division 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Division 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 71 | 69.7 | +1.3 | |
| 2 | Bray | 53 | 52.5 | +0.5 | |
| 3 | UC Dublin | 52 | 50.6 | +1.4 | |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 49 | 45.0 | +4.0 | |
| 5 | Longford | 48 | 40.8 | +7.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Wexford | 41 | 48.2 | -7.2 | |
| 9 | Treaty United | 36 | 39.1 | -3.1 | |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 25 | 33.0 | -8.0 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+