Paide vs Harju JK Laagri
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-13 · 13:30 CET
WWLWW
WDWWWThe score model made a Paide win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paide 2.17 – 0.92 Harju JK Laagri.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide win | 67.0% | 57.3% | +9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.1% | 22.6% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Harju JK Laagri win | 15.9% | 20.1% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 64.7% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 44.3% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 61.4% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 43.7% | +2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paide 50 / Harju JK Laagri 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Paide vs Harju JK Laagri in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.