Nomme Utd vs Flora
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
LLLLW
DWWLLThe score model made a Flora win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nomme Utd 1.19 – 2.57 Flora.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomme Utd win | 16.4% | 18.8% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 15.4% | 20.9% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Flora win | 68.2% | 60.3% | +7.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.5% | 69.4% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.8% | 50.1% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 65.3% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.5% | 48.2% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nomme Utd 30.6 / Flora 51.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nomme Utd vs Flora in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.