Tammeka vs Paide
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-09 · 18:00 CET
WLLWL
LWWLWThe score model made a Paide win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tammeka 1.09 – 1.73 Paide.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tammeka win | 25.2% | 29.5% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.1% | 25.2% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Paide win | 53.7% | 45.3% | +8.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 59.2% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 38.9% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 61.4% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.4% | 40.8% | +7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tammeka 49.7 / Paide 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.