Kalju vs Nomme Utd
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-08 · 17:00 CET
LWWLD
WLLLLThe score model made a Kalju win the most likely outcome at 79%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalju 2.86 – 0.87 Nomme Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju win | 78.9% | 65.9% | +13.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 11.8% | 19.3% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Nomme Utd win | 9.3% | 14.8% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | 66.4% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.3% | 46.5% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 58.9% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.1% | 45.8% | +7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalju 50.5 / Nomme Utd 29.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.