Scarborough vs Merthyr Town
National League North, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
DDDLW
WDLDDThe score model made a Scarborough win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Scarborough 1.74 – 1.52 Merthyr Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough win | 43.5% | 44.8% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 26.1% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Merthyr Town win | 34.1% | 29.1% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 57.5% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 37.3% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | 60.4% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 39.4% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Scarborough 60.9 / Merthyr Town 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Scarborough vs Merthyr Town in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.