Hereford vs South Shields
National League North, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WWWDL
WLWLLThe score model made a South Shields win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 6:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hereford 1.24 – 1.50 South Shields.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hereford win | 31.9% | 29.6% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 26.0% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| South Shields win | 43.6% | 44.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 58.5% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 38.3% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 60.7% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 40.2% | -1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hereford 60.8 / South Shields 58.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hereford vs South Shields in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.