Chester vs Merthyr Town
National League North, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
DLLWW
WWDLDThe score model made a Chester win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chester 1.88 – 1.34 Merthyr Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester win | 50.4% | 56.8% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 23.4% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Merthyr Town win | 27.7% | 19.9% | +7.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 56.9% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.3% | 36.2% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 55.5% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 39.2% | -2.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chester 60.9 / Merthyr Town 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.