Hereford vs Chester
National League North, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WWWWD
LDLLWThe score model made a Chester win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hereford 1.22 – 1.35 Chester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hereford win | 33.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Chester win | 40.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hereford 58.5 / Chester 59.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.