Botafogo RJ vs Gremio
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-18 · 00:30 CET
DDWLL
LLDDDThe score model made a Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo RJ 1.87 – 0.97 Gremio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ win | 58.3% | 55.2% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 24.4% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Gremio win | 18.7% | 20.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 55.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 34.3% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 56.2% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 37.8% | -3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo RJ 54.1 / Gremio 53.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Botafogo RJ vs Gremio in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.