Santos vs Cruzeiro
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-13 · 02:00 CET
WWWDL
LWLWWThe score model made a Santos win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Santos 1.34 – 1.24 Cruzeiro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos win | 38.8% | 34.0% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 28.0% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Cruzeiro win | 33.9% | 38.0% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 51.3% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 30.3% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 56.5% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 34.9% | -2.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Santos 44 / Cruzeiro 53.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Santos vs Cruzeiro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.