Mirassol vs Vitoria
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-13 · 21:00 CET
WDWDL
WDLWLThe score model made a Mirassol win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mirassol 1.65 – 0.84 Vitoria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol win | 56.2% | 53.7% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.0% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Vitoria win | 18.7% | 20.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 50.3% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 29.8% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 52.4% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 34.5% | +1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mirassol 39.2 / Vitoria 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mirassol vs Vitoria in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.