Flamengo RJ vs Corinthians
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-13 · 22:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Flamengo RJ win the most likely outcome at 67%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flamengo RJ 1.95 – 0.69 Corinthians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ win | 67.1% | 75.5% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.0% | 16.9% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Corinthians win | 11.9% | 7.7% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 54.7% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 33.6% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 40.4% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 37.0% | +0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flamengo RJ 53.6 / Corinthians 53 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Flamengo RJ vs Corinthians in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.