Botafogo RJ vs Bragantino
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-14 · 01:30 CET
DDWLL
LDLLDThe score model made a Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo RJ 1.73 – 0.94 Bragantino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ win | 55.5% | 40.3% | +15.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 27.7% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Bragantino win | 20.1% | 32.0% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 54.5% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 33.8% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 58.6% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 36.9% | -2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo RJ 53.5 / Bragantino 53.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Botafogo RJ vs Bragantino in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.