Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-12 · 23:30 CET
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LWLLWThe score model made a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.79 – 0.70 Sao Paulo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras win | 63.2% | 57.4% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 25.7% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Sao Paulo win | 13.8% | 16.9% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 43.8% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 23.7% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | 44.5% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 30.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Palmeiras 53.3 / Sao Paulo 52.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.