Gremio vs Vasco
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-12 · 21:00 CET
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LWWWDThe score model made a Gremio win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gremio 1.69 – 1.08 Vasco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio win | 51.3% | 34.2% | +17.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 29.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Vasco win | 23.9% | 36.4% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 45.5% | +6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 25.4% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 52.0% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 31.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gremio 51.7 / Vasco 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gremio vs Vasco in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.